Due to some surprising announcements and actions in the past few weeks, Congressional math will look different after the New Year. As Congress heads into 2024, an election year, here are the most recent changes to the House of Representatives makeup and what it might mean for the future.

• The House voted to expel Republican Rep. George Santos of New York after a blistering ethics report on his conduct heightened lawmakers’ concerns about the scandal-plagued freshman. Representative Santos became just the sixth member in the chamber’s history to be ousted by colleagues, and only the third since the Civil War.  The special election for his seat will be held on February 13 and is being positioned as a battleground election.
• Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) resigned after a 17-year career in the House after being removed from his speakership in October. Representative McCarthy’s departure announcement was not specific about his timing, which affects the process to choose his replacement. If he leaves his seat before January 3, California Governor Gavin Newsom must call a special election. If Representative McCarthy stays in office after January 3, it’s up to Governor Newsom to decide whether to call a special election in 2024 to fill the remaining months of McCarthy’s current term, according to the Secretary of State’s office. If a seat is vacated in the final year of a term, no special election is required.
• Ohio Rep. Bill Johnson announced in November he would be retiring to lead Youngstown State University. It is unclear when he will leave his seat, but it will likely be no later than March 15. Ohio requires a special election primary if parties have more than one candidate, which would further draw out the special election process. One potential timeline would have the special general election held in August of 2024, the winner serving for as few as six weeks before the regular general election occurs.

These three announcements shrink the House Republican’s majority from slim to virtually nonexistent. Currently, to pass a bill on a party-line vote, there is only a margin of three votes. If the Democrats flip the Santos seat, that margin would drop to two.  In what passes for a “normal” session in an election year there are fewer legislative accomplishments, as members try to spend as much time as possible in their districts to campaign. This close of a margin has the potential to further decrease House action on legislation outside of funding functions.