So Goes Pennsylvania…
Pollsters are closely watching the East Coast trio of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia as we are now fewer than 50 days away from Election Day. A recent Washington Post poll out of Pennsylvania shows just how tight the race for the White House is and how it is affecting down-ballot races as well.
A week after the presidential debate, Vice President Harris is favored by 48 percent of both likely voters and registered voters. In the same poll, former President Trump is favored by 47 percent of both likely voters and registered voters. After excluding third-party candidates, the vice president and former president are tied at 48 percent among likely voters. Should the vice president lose Pennsylvania, electoral college math shows that she would have to win either Georgia or North Carolina in order to win the White House.
It is no surprise that Pennsylvania is showing a tight presidential race. In 2016 former President Trump won the state by less than a percentage point. In 2020 President Biden carried it by one percentage point or 80,000 votes. The more surprising change in numbers has come in the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Pennsylvania businessman Dave McCormick (R).
The same September 12-16 poll had the two Senate candidates also tied at 48 percent among likely voters. Senator Casey won his seat in 2018 with nearly 57 percent of the vote, and prior to this poll McCormick had been trailing Casey by several percentage points. In order to keep their slim Senate majority, Democrats must hold the Pennsylvania seat.
September 25th, 2024
